Browsing some of the local Realtor's web sites I came across one that had a graphic market guage on it indicating the Fresno real estate market was in perfect balance. YEA RIGHT! This market sucks, and to be quite honest its sucking even worse than I thought it would.
Take a look at the 24 Hour Stats I just pulled up from the MLS
New Listings - 87
Back on Market - 35
Price Increases - 5
Price Reductions- 129
Contingents - 4
Pendings - 22
Sold - 21
Add the New Listings and Back on the Market to get the inventory that came onto the market and we have 122 properties that came onto the market. Now minus from that the homes that went Contingent and Pending = 26. Then divide 122/26 and you get 4.69 which means for every 1 property that went off the market 4.69 came on the market. The reason the SOLDS are not included in the above equation is that they are the homes that went pending/contingent 30-45 days ago that actually closed. We dont really know how many of the Contingent and Pending sales will actually close. But if we replace the Pendings and Contingents with the Solds then then we have 122/21 = 5.8 .... or a ratio of about 6 to 1. VERY IMBALANCED. For further proof of how imbalanced the market is just look at the ratio of Price Increases to Price Reductions.
Now in order to state this more simply, if the equations above don't make sense, lets just say a balanced market would look like this:
50 properties come on the market
50 properties go off the market
50 price increases
50 price reductions
that's a balanced market - where buyers and sellers are equal.
If you need a home, it may not be a bad time to buy; but if you need to sell... it's tough. If you're an investor the big question is: WHERE'S THE BOTTOM? Of course, if I could call market tops and bottoms I would be in better financial shape than I am. I love to trade stocks and this chart pretty much sums up how the market treats you:
click image or here to view larger
I was once a dot com multimillionaire. I lost more money in paper profits than the average real estate broker makes in 30 years of work :( .... So don't even think to ask me when then market has bottomed. Had I known the top (of the recent runup in property values) , I would have done some things differently. Many of you are probably saying the same thing.
If you have property that needs to be sold, don't let this negative information deter you from calling me to help you sell it. If you don't absolutely need to sell the property right now - your best bet might be to wait and ride things out. Unfortunately, I can't tell you when it will improve - and it could even get worse ( I hope not ). One of my friends was able to find tenant for his home that he couldn't sell. I recently got a 3 year lease option for an owner of a commercial property that was sitting on the market with no bidders.
PLEASE VISIT MY OTHER WEBSITE AT: WWW.BLOGGINGBROKER.COM
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